Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 0.017507 0.019849 0.022409 0.025419 0.028866 0.032694 0.037275
2024-10-06 0.014149 0.017405 0.021284 0.026264 0.032509 0.040114 0.050120
2024-10-13 0.011609 0.015059 0.019411 0.025331 0.033222 0.043444 0.057796
2024-10-20 0.010016 0.013565 0.018251 0.024936 0.034307 0.047087 0.066028
2024-10-27 0.008627 0.012115 0.016903 0.024017 0.034425 0.049261 0.072307
2024-11-03 0.008060 0.011707 0.016896 0.024903 0.037100 0.055229 0.084676
2024-11-10 0.007530 0.011274 0.016779 0.025571 0.039467 0.060928 0.097255
2024-11-17 0.007062 0.010873 0.016647 0.026167 0.041739 0.066666 0.110524
2024-11-24 0.006448 0.010179 0.015986 0.025839 0.042461 0.069950 0.120051
2024-12-01 0.005935 0.009591 0.015427 0.025600 0.043272 0.073412 0.130227
2024-12-08 0.005492 0.009072 0.014926 0.025393 0.044089 0.076927 0.140856
2024-12-15 0.005249 0.008863 0.014912 0.026010 0.046392 0.083265 0.157422
2024-12-22 0.004883 0.008419 0.014476 0.025865 0.047351 0.087354 0.170404
2024-12-29 0.004716 0.008310 0.014613 0.026772 0.050366 0.095639 0.192823
2025-01-05 0.004290 0.007698 0.013796 0.025816 0.049703 0.096726 0.200587
2025-01-12 0.003985 0.007282 0.013298 0.025414 0.050071 0.099865 0.213044
2025-01-19 0.003640 0.006762 0.012562 0.024475 0.049254 0.100485 0.220049
2025-01-26 0.003555 0.006728 0.012743 0.025379 0.052322 0.109547 0.247218
2025-02-02 0.003448 0.006641 0.012814 0.026061 0.054985 0.118027 0.274192
2025-02-09 0.003339 0.006541 0.012850 0.026670 0.057549 0.126563 0.302481
2025-02-16 0.003139 0.006244 0.012463 0.026335 0.057974 0.130291 0.319406
2025-02-23 0.002965 0.005985 0.012131 0.026091 0.058578 0.134492 0.338101
2025-03-02 0.002807 0.005747 0.011827 0.025880 0.059235 0.138884 0.357901